In July, one good priced winner I backed was The Profit Kings Whatwedo at Wanganui. He had finished down the track at Hastings just five days earlier. That race was at 1400 metres and now he was back to his favourite distance of 1200 metres. Also he was racing on his favourite course this time where he had won twice previously. His past record at Hastings where he last raced was poor. Whatwedo won paying $13.50 but I got the early odds of 25/1 on him.
A promising horse in winning form is always a good bet and one such winner I backed was Rawmaterial at Riccarton. He had won three from eight starts, won his most recent race, and was not carrying more weight than at his last race. I backed him and he won at 8/1. There are lots of this type of horses like this that win and they are not hard to spot.
Backing winners when the going is heavy can be a nightmare with some winter meetings turning out to be a punter's graveyard but if you know what to look for then you can find winners at long odds during this difficult winter period.
Form acquired in firm and dead going is not necessarily a good guide to a horse's chances in wet ground. It is however an indication of fitness therefore we cannot dismiss such horses with reasonable form on decent tracks when they face a change of going because some horses handle most types of going. We cannot rule out horses with poor form either especially if their recent racing has been in going which is not their preferred type. This becomes a balancing act, one which can frustrate form students who having weighed up the pros and cons of each horse's chances will watch in despair as an unbacked longshot with absolutely no form in bad ground romps home.